[ti:δ]
[00:02.58]А
[00:07.36]Listen and Share
[00:30.03]John Maynard Keynes ;‖÷′《
[00:47.112
[00:50.30]These technical deficiencies in Skidelsky's academic training
[00:54.34]are the main defect,
[00:56.67]not only in this book
[00:58.43]but in the entire corpus of Skidelsky's writings
[01:02.67]on Keynes going back over 30 years.
[01:06.17]I will concentrate on Skidelsky's error
[01:09.15]filled statements concerning Keynes's
[01:12.33]A Treatise on Probability(1921;TP)
[01:16.83]and the logical theory of probability. On p.95.
[01:22.93/##[01:47.03]/
[01:52.07]These technical deficiencies in Skidelsky's academic training
[01:56.18]are the main defect,
[02:03.41]not only in this book
[02:05.12]but in the entire corpus of Skidelsky's writings
[02:08.90]on Keynes going back over 30 years.
[02:21.02]I will concentrate on Skidelsky's error
[02:23.63]filled statements
[02:28.65]concerning Keynes's
[02:30.00]A Treatise on Probability(1921;TP)
[02:35.08]and the logical theory of probability. On p.95.
[02:48.19]‖μ##[02:50.51]concentrate on ;￡﹁1
[02:56.38]concentrate upon
[03:01.18]concentrate on my work
[03:04.26]concentrate one's effort on sth.
[03:10.67]We must concentrate our efforts on improving education.
[03:19.23]concerning ; 1$##[03:21.77]This is a proposal concerning the construction
[03:25.19]of the new airport.
[03:32.87]concerned
[03:35.91]They called on all departments concerned to take actions.
[03:44.84]concerned ; 1$##[03:54.11]people concerned
[04:25.83]Skidelsky conflates the principle of indifference
[04:28.95]with the principle of insufficient reason.
[04:32.30]They are not the same.
[04:34.04]Keynes's poi requires a balance or symmetry of the relevant,
[04:38.69]available evidence or factors
[04:41.48]involved before equiprobabilities are assigned.
[04:46.32]Advocates of the principle of insufficient reason,
[04:49.42]on the other hand,
[04:50.71]argue that equiprobabilities can be applied in states
[04:55.73]where no relevant evidence exists.
[04:59.49]Keynes always rejected this kind of reasoning.
[05:04.79/##[05:32.78]/
[05:37.88]Skidelsky conflates the principle of indifference
[05:41.09]with the principle of insufficient reason.
[05:49.97]They are not the same.
[05:53.72]Keynes's poi requires a balance or symmetry of the relevant,
[05:58.34]available evidence or factors
[06:01.02]involved before equiprobabilities are assigned.
[06:15.31]Advocates of the principle of insufficient reason,
[06:18.32]on the other hand, argue that
[06:24.88]equiprobabilities can be applied in states
[06:28.02]where no relevant evidence exists.
[06:35.70]Keynes always rejected this kind of reasoning.
[06:44.20]‖μ##[06:46.26]on the other hand
[06:51.60]on one hand...on the other hand...
[06:57.42]On one hand, nature is our friend,
[07:00.09]on the other hand, it will hurt us sometimes.
[07:12.06]on the other hand ;
[07:15.13]but
[07:45.55]Skidelsky bases his assessment
[07:48.02]of Keynes's logical theory of probability
[07:50.94]on the error filled work of A. Carabelli and R.O'Donnell.
[07:57.64]Carabelli and O'Donnell base their assessments
[08:00.73]of the TP on four sources:
[08:04.21]1) Keynes's introductory guide to the measurement
[08:07.74]of probability in chapter III of the TP;
[08:12.16]2) F. Ramsey's 1922 book review of the TP
[08:17.45]in The Cambridge Magazine;
[08:20.77]3) F.Ramsey's 1926 book review of the TP in his article,
[08:27.20]"Truth and Probability",
[08:29.49]published in 1931 in a book of articles; and
[08:33.83]4) Keynes's 4 page eulogy
[08:36.99]and very brief review of the book in 1931.
[08:42.69/##[09:23.11]/
[09:27.83]Skidelsky bases his assessment
[09:29.77]of Keynes's logical theory of probability
[09:32.55]on the error filled work of A. Carabelli and R.O'Donnell.
[09:47.68]Carabelli and O'Donnell base their assessments
[09:50.72]of the TP on four sources:
[09:58.90]1) Keynes's introductory guide to the measurement
[10:02.39]of probability in chapter III of the TP;
[11:30.50]base